- Estimation of the effective reproduction number (rt) for the COVID-19 pandemic in Jakarta: A mathematical modelling approach
Abstract
A reproduction number that is less than 1 for 14 consecutive days is widely recognized as an essential indicator to assess whether epidemic conditions can be brought under control. This paper reveals how this indicator can be applied to evaluate the dynamics of an epidemic both at the early stage and toward its end within a specific region. The effective reproduction number (Rt), obtained based on the SIR (Susceptible, Infectious, and Removed) model and formulated through a finite difference equation, serves as a practical tool to assess the controllability level of an epidemic. Furthermore, by utilizing contact tracing data provided by the Government for COVID-19 suspects, the value of this indicator can be estimated accurately using the developed mathematical formulation. In this study, data were sourced from the official COVID-19 File History of DKI Jakarta, covering the period from July 24 to August 7, 2020. The calculated Rt values were then compared with those reported in similar studies to validate the findings. Differences in outcomes can be attributed to several factors, including variations in methodology, differences in time frames used for sampling, distinct regional epidemic characteristics, government-implemented social restriction policies of varying intensity, as well as vaccination strategies and public compliance levels. These influencing factors underscore the importance of context-specific analysis in using Rt as a reliable indicator for epidemic control evaluation
Keywords:
effective reproduction number, basic reproduction number, Covid-19 pandemic, finite difference methodsDownloads
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